Energeia were commissioned for the AEMC to conduct research with networks, retailers and electricians to gather information and determine the process and associated costs of establishing a second connection point.
The Energy Supply Association of Australia (esaa) commissioned Energeia to provide an independent, evidence based report identifying appropriate EV and natural gas vehicle (NGV) targets for Australia considering a range of costs and benefits and the mix of best practice policies for achieving the target.
Falling solution costs, an erosion of currently high levels of network reliability and widespread adoption of solar PV are expected to begin driving demand for microgrids by 2015. By 2027, Energeia’s outlook is for over 70,000 customers to have invested in embedded microgrid solutions to access better than grid levels of reliability.
The widespread availability of smart appliances and demand management incentives in Victoria and Queensland are seen driving significant market adoption of residential energy management technology in these two states by 2013. Energeia’s updated outlook is for 2 million loads or 1,200 MW under management by 2022.
Energeia’s reassessment of Australia’s residential market for rooftop solar PV in 2012 expects it to fall 56% in 2012, after growing 58% in 2011. Despite the tough market conditions now, Energeia has revised its long-term outlook upwards to 20% of all houses, around 1.5 million units, and an installed capacity of 2,700 MW by 2021.
Greater demand management incentives, rising electricity prices and falling energy storage costs are expected to begin driving demand for energy storage products from 2015. Over the next ten years, our modelling shows market sales totalling 400,000 units, representing over 4 GW in price responsive demand and supply.
Energeia’s review has found Australia’s state based schemes are consistent with, and in some respects lead, international best practice. However, detailed analysis reveals a number of significant gaps exist which, if addressed, could cost effectively lower household energy consumption by nearly 50% over the period – nearly double the national target.
Personal power plant technology can provide gas connected residential premises with all of their electricity and hot water heating needs at 23% to 39% of the carbon emissions of today. Energeia’s new analysis shows a positive investment case emerging for larger households in NSW and VIC as early as 2015, rising to 1.5 million households by 2021.
Modelling undertaking for the study shows the Australian residential solar PV market shrinking 80% by 2014 from its peak in 2010. The report sees falling solar PV prices and rising retail electricity prices ultimately leading to eight percent of Australian residential properties installing a solar PV system by 2021.
Modelling undertaking for the study shows Electric Vehicles (EVs) reaching 25% of total vehicles on the road by 2030. The report highlights the near-term impact of EV clustering on network reliability at the suburb level, and the long-term impact of over 1 Gigawatt in distributed storage.